I think I've just discovered a bug with Aerie's Romance and the Ease of Use pack. The ease-of-use option "Stop Party Member Alignment-Reputation Complaints (Kalthorine Ut Wistan)" prevents Aerie's romance from beginning. All the variables will be correct for an active romance, but she will never speak.

I have heard that her romance may not begin until you reach a particular reputation level. If this is true, the bug may result from the mod deactivating all reputation-based conversation, not just complaints.

Has anyone else encountered this? Can anyone confirm it?

How far are you into Chapter 2 right now? It takes a while for Aerie's Romance to start, something like 4 game days, so you might just want to give it some time. As for a minimum Rep needed, I've never had this problem, I believe she's supposed to try to romance even the most evil of PC's. Final note; have you tried uninstalling the Happy mod and seeing if the romance starts?