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A Car that runs on Salt Water?

Discussion in 'Alley of Dangerous Angles' started by Beren, Apr 1, 2015.

  1. henkie

    henkie Hammertime Resourceful Adored Veteran New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!)

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    That pretty wide margin is not always as wide as some people would like us to believe. Renewable fuel - i.e. ethanol and biodiesel - is definitely not in all conditions more environmentally friendly than petrol and diesel.

    They're really big on ethanol in Sweden, but given the local conditions there, they would never be able to grow enough in their own country because the climate is just too cold. So they import the stuff from Brasil, where it grows very well. But considering the energy cost of refining the ethanol from sugar reeds, the transport both in Brasil and to transport it half way across the world make it rather dubious that there actually is much environmental benefit. Especially if you consider that they cut amazon jungle in order to have fields on which to grow the sugar reeds.

    The same goes for the case of biodiesel, except the base is typically some form of vegetable oil from palm, rapeseed or soy. Growing these crops, using pesticides of some sort, transporting it, refining it, transporting it again, combine to make this not necessarily very sustainable. To make it competitive on price, it needs to be subsidised, which in turn leads these crops being grown instead of food crops (which isn't typically subsidised), leading to a lack of food in some countries. And of course also cutting woods for growing crops.

    It's good to have alternatives to fossil fuel, and we need to keep working on it, but I'm not under the illusion that we are currently at anywhere even close to reaching the point that we actually have viable alternatives. Not with our current energy use (which will only get worse as big countries like India and China get more developed). Unfortunately, we might still in our own lifetimes be forced into the alternatives due to the dwindling supply of liquid fossil fuels.

    My knowledge of solar energy numbers might be a bit dated, but the return of investment on a strict energy basis for a solar panel was about 10 years from what I know.

    Also, 12 to 64 million birds killed from power transmission lines 0_o
    That's staggering.
     
  2. damedog Gems: 15/31
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    Henkie, I think ethanol and biodiesel are largely a joke, so i'm with you on that one. I neglected to mention those for that reason.

    Again I agree, we are in a horrible situation. On one hand we have an enormous and growing energy demand. On the other hand we already have a supply several times bigger than what is largely agreed to be safe to put in the atmosphere. Some countries are already showing us how it's done. In such a position the actions taken should be drastic, or at least somewhat on scale with the problem as we understand it. But it's not.

    If all I was giving you were sources with a clear motive I would totally get that attitude. But some of these are government sources, and considering the hugely apathetic response they have taken to the issue I find it hard to wrap my head around the government being environmental advocates.

    Do you disagree that fossil fuels have a harsher social and environmental cost, or do you just reject the sources? Because if you "don't like" the additional costs of fossil fuel, there are way more to consider for it than just the bird issue. I don't think the claim that fossil fuel burning causes ill health effects needs to be a claim with plenty of sources. We can bicker about the exact figures, or we can point out the obvious; fossil fuel burning causes lots of pollution and ill health effects. Lots. I can believe some fanatics may put the lives of birds over human lives, but not alpha-skeptic of all things green Blackthorne :)
     
  3. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    I just don't buy into "social" costs because as I said they are not calculable and are simply used for advocacy. As far as environmental costs, it's much less than the benefit cheap energy gives to the world. I'm not against renewables, I just don't like the propaganda that renewables like wind and solar can replace all fossil fuel use in the near future, and I don't like that government subsidies are used (and necessary) to make those sources of power competitive. Not that the fossil fuel industry doesn't have it's own government subsidies... :)
     
  4. damedog Gems: 15/31
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    What do you mean you "don't buy" into social costs? Should we ignore them, despite their obvious presence, on the basis of them not being calculable down to the last decimal point? I highly doubt any numbers, such as the amount of cases of lung disease from smoking, can be totally calculated. I don't see this as being a valid reason not to do anything. I just don't see not buying into them as a choice, I guess. They exist. We can't pretend otherwise.

    We need to, because global warming is real. I know you disagree. But there is simply no basis for it. If there was, maybe poll after poll wouldn't find climate change to overwhelmingly be the consensus among scientists, every time. Maybe you wouldn't be able to get research published about how 97% of relevant literature endorses global warming. Maybe if it wasn't real we wouldn't have so many scientific groups willing to say it is.

    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    American Astronomical Society
    American Chemical Society
    American Geophysical Union
    American Institute of Physics
    American Meteorological Society
    American Physical Society
    Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
    Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO
    British Antarctic Survey
    Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
    Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
    Environmental Protection Agency
    European Federation of Geologists
    European Geosciences Union
    European Physical Society
    Federation of American Scientists
    Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies
    Geological Society of America
    Geological Society of Australia
    Geological Society of London
    International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA)
    International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
    National Center for Atmospheric Research
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    Royal Meteorological Society
    Royal Society of the UK


    ....and so little willing to say it isn't.


    I mean, you want to dismiss a comparison of the social costs of fossil fuels and alternatives as propaganda and "advocacy". Isn't it a bit ironic, then, that you take this stance? At least what I am saying is generally accepted information. Global warming denialism is a fringe minority among the people that matter, with very strong incentives to pursue both propaganda and "advocacy".
     
  5. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    That's because the climate always changes and always will. If you ask the REAL question, you will not get overwhelming agreement. The real question is not "is the globe warming" or "is the climate changing". The question is "does the anthropogenic contribution of carbon dioxide cause enough warming to cause concern". And clearly if you look at the data the answer is "no". How many predictions of doom and gloom have come and gone and turned out to be BS? More hurricanes and they'll be more powerful! Nope. More tornadoes! Nope. The Arctic sea ice will disappear by such and such date! Nope. The Antarctic ice is disappearing! Nope. Sea levels will rise at increasing rates! Nope. The list goes on and on.
    If you are talking about Cook et. al. that paper is such a PoS I'm surprised anyone still brings it up. It has been thoroughly debunked even by the scientists whose papers they cited. Not only do they not get to 97% endorsing BY THEIR OWN STATED METHODOLOGY, but their methodology was flawed to begin with. That just goes to show how crappy the peer reviewed literature is when it comes to global warming/climate change; it is a political entity now, not a scientific one.
    Again, what is "it"; it completely depends on the question whether you will get agreement from anyone.
    No it's not. The advocates and alarmists would however like you to think so.
     
  6. henkie

    henkie Hammertime Resourceful Adored Veteran New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!)

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    I agree that the question is not "does the climate change". Looking at the history, one can only conclude that the only constant is change. With or without help of humans.

    For me, the real question is "how will our society hold up once easy energy runs out?" Liquid fuels are likely the first to run out - estimates vary, but the time is measured in decades, not centuries. More fuel becomes economic to win with fuel prices going up and up, but there's also the consideration that once fuel costs more energy (i.e. fuel) to retrieve than it will yield, it will no longer be cost effective, no matter how high the fuel prices go.

    Gas is similarly limited, and the US's strategy to switch more to gas than liquid fuels over the last few years will only result in their gas reserves declining quicker and quicker over the years.

    Coal is expected to last a fair time still, between 100 and 200 years, depending on whose estimation you believe, but it will still run out.

    What will society do once the easy energy runs out? Living closer to work is a possibility, though only in as far as that I expect people to start using more electric cars (electricity from alternative sources is easier to make and distribute), but I won't expect more people to actually use a bicycle or some such to go to work.

    To be fair, the arctic sea ice was never so small (in recorded history) than it was the past few years and there is a fair chance that this or the next few years will mark a completely ice free arctic sea. End of summer, anyway.
     
  7. ConjurerDragon

    ConjurerDragon Ich dien ★ SPS Account Holder Veteran

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    Live slower. Sailing ships will see a renaissance :D

    Hah!
    http://www.mit-dem-rad-zur-arbeit.de/bundesweit/index.php
    (for those who don´t understand german that´s the website where all states of Germany combined with a large healthcare company suggest and support people using bike+rail instead of their car in the summer from 01.06. to 30.09. (german dates so DD.MM.) with a giveaway for those who manage at least 20 days :cool:

    Sure but who cares when Canada and Denmark/Greenland go to war about control of the North-West-Passage? ;)
     
  8. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Oh, I agree that is a good question, just not having to do with global warming/climate change. I think when fossil fuels become more expensive than other energy sources we will naturally move to those other sources. And they will become cheaper as time goes on with better technology.

    Doubtful. Multi-year ice in the Arctic has been increasing year over year since the low in 2007 I believe (but don't quote me on that, I'm just going by memory). However, more importantly, global sea ice anomaly is currently slightly above 0 which means there is more sea ice than "average" right now. Antarctic sea ice has had record extents the last few years.
     
  9. pplr Gems: 18/31
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    No it isn't.

    "Arctic sea ice extent for April 2015 averaged 14.0 million square kilometers (5.4 million square miles), the second lowest April ice extent in the satellite record. It is 810,000 square kilometers (313,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 15.0 million square kilometers (6.0 million square miles) and 80,000 square kilometers (31,000 square miles) above the previous record low for the month observed in 2007."

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


    Also I disagree with the notion that expenses don't have to deal with climate change. A better question is if we recognize the expenses related to Global Warming and treat them as such.

    If person A trashes person B's car it will probably be expensive for person B or person B's insurance company if nobody figures out person A did it and thus the bill (car repairs or a new car) is never sent that direction.
     
  10. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    What you quoted did not refute anything I said, so what do you mean by "No it isn't."?
     
  11. pplr Gems: 18/31
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    If this past April was the 2nd lowest in terms of sea ice is the past 30 some years then it isn't "increasing year over year".

    More importantly I'm not sure if "sea ice anomaly" means what you said it means but I do know what "extent" means (area covered by sea ice). If you go to the link I provided take a look at chart of the "Arctic Sea Ice Extent" you'll see that each of the last 5 years (including this one) has been largely been below average (specifically the 1981-2010 average).


    And I'm quoting your response to when henkie mentioned the decreasing sea ice in the Arctic.





    As a side point.

    I wanted to point out there are sizable expenses related to fossil fuels that companies involved in accessing and using them don't pay but the rest of society (other people & companies) does. So do we accurately recognize just how expensive fossil fuels really are (I'd argue they get a large indirect subsidy that few other types of energy receive).
     
  12. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    I said multi-year ice, not max extent.

    GLOBAL means Arctic and Antarctic.

    Anomaly means they have a baseline and the anomaly shows whether is it above or below that baseline.
     
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    I believe multi-year or "year over year" means year after year, which means more sea ice this year than last and so forth. Yet 2nd lowest 7 or 8 years later means that didn't happen.

    Also using 2007 (lowest year in 30 years) as a starting point is questionable because that doesn't compare it to an actual average and any other year (by definition of what "lowest" means) will have more ice. Comparing it to an average is a better indicator of what is happening because it compares what is going on now to a period of time.

    Also the graph isn't of "max extent", not that it matters (because we are talking indicators of the amount of Arctic Ice) but average extent each year (& several months in each year).

    1. henkie, & yourself when you disagreed with him, mentioned Arctic sea ice in specific.

    2. If the anomaly measurement leads one to misunderstand what is happening in the Arctic then perhaps it isn't the best measurement to use.

    3. The Arctic & Antarctic sea ice operate in different geographies & different systems. There is more land ice in the Antarctic (on Antarctica) that can start melting and then slide into the ocean (& become sea ice) than there is in the Arctic. So that isn't even a good way to measure the impact of Global Warming because it misses the details of how Global Warming affects each geography/system differently.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2015
  14. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    The point is that since the low in 2007, ice that survives over the summer has been increasing. If the Arctic is in a "death spiral" due to increasing CO2 levels, why is that happening as CO2 is continuing to increase? Multi-year ice is ice that has been in the Arctic for more than a single year.

    I said multi-year ice in the Arctic has been increasing since 2007 AND MORE IMPORTANTLY global sea ice is above average since the Antarctic sea ice has been at record highs the last few years.

    Why do you want to concentrate on the Arctic? What difference does it make if the ice disappears in the Arctic in summer? Especially if more appears in the Antarctic?

    However, I clearly said GLOBAL SEA ICE ANOMALY, not Arctic sea ice anomaly.

    There is NO land ice in the Arctic. Sea ice is there (in general) because the sea has frozen, not because land ice has started to melt and slipped into the sea. Glaciers in Antarctica are rivers of ice that flow to the sea, not because they are melting, but because the accumulation of ice inland pushes it into the sea.

    What are you talking about? The Global Warming theory states that the poles should warm faster than the rest of the globe, so why has there been record ice extent in the Antarctic the past several years even as CO2 has continued to increase? Because it's warmer or because it's colder?
     
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    As you can see henkie referred to the "arctic".

    The reply to that point was..

    Responded to him by referring to "the Arctic".


    After referring to the Arctic you then mentioned the "global sea ice anomaly", about which I pointed out..

    ..meaning "anomaly" measurements could actually led people to misunderstand what is happening with both Arctic sea ice and Global Warming.


    I also pointed out that starting with 2007 is misleading to start with.

    A more accurate way is to go over past past few decades and see the downward trend for sea ice.

    See "Figure 3" at the link below where it also points out "Monthly April ice extent for 1979 to 2015 shows a decline of 2.4% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average."

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    Look under the title "April 2015 compared to previous years"



    It'll also help with this question.

    It is pretty easy to see the extent goes up and down.

    The sea ice extent increased even more than after the 1997 (guessing that is the year from the chart) low than it did after the 2007 low and yet that multi-year ice largely melted away.

    The ice recovers for a few years after a low for it and then even more than that recovery melts away. So the trend if for there to be even less ice at the end than at the beginning.

    And the recovery you referred to after 2007 actually stopped about 2010 or 2011 and was no longer "continuing to increase".

    Blackthorne TA, while you thought Arctic multi-year ice was growing that stopped in 2011 and it actually went into a small dip followed by a small recovery and has been in larger decline since about 2012 or 2013.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2015
  16. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Incorrect. The anomaly leads people to better understand what is happening because it shows the deviation from the "norm". And looking at global sea ice rather than just the Arctic also gives a better understanding because both poles are supposed to warm faster that the rest of the globe under the Anthropogenic (i.e. human contributions of CO2) Global Warming theory.

    Incorrect yet again. If you are trying to show that increasing levels of CO2 are the cause of Global Warming and the decrease in Arctic ice, why is the amount of ice in the Arctic not continuing downward and disappearing in the Summer since CO2 has continued to increase? Showing that Arctic ice is on a downward trend doesn't tell you the cause.

    As I said, once again, MORE IMPORTANTLY GLOBAL sea ice is above the norm.
     
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    Except. As I already said. If Global Warming interacts with the 2 different polor regions in different ways.

    And like, I said before, geography can play into this-and you agreed with me that Antarctica has land ice while the Arctic generally does not. You gave me a "no you're right" (disagreed with me yet gave me a fact I already pointed out which supports my point.)

    If Global Warming does interact differently with the 2 regions differently then using it would lead someone to an inaccurate conclusion.


    I just got through saying why the anomaly may (and probably is in the short term) a bad and misleading way to measure sea ice. After all it probably helped lead you into the mistake of thinking Arctic sea ice had been increasing when the reverse has been true for the last few years.

    As to what time of the year sea ice melts in the Arctic. Don't know what the pattern is that drives it in terms or spring/summer/fall but if you look through the various charts at the website you see there is one.. actually looking at it just now it seams that amount of Arctic Ice does drop as we get closer to summer-look at the chart listed under "Arctic Sea Ice Extent".

    It currently shows the extent of ice has been dropping from February to June.
     
  18. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Except. That's not what the theory says.

    No you didn't; you explained why you thought the different polar regions might be reacting differently (and I've explained why you are wrong). Are you confusing what an anomaly is? Is has nothing to do with global vs. Arctic vs. Antarctic sea ice. It has to do with a deviation from the norm, so that you don't have to wonder about normal seasonal changes. Global sea ice anomaly is within the norm, but on the plus side of the baseline. Arctic sea ice anomaly is currently just barely within the norm on the low side (the norm being +- 2 standard deviations of the baseline). Antarctic sea ice is above the norm (i.e. more than 2 standard deviations above the baseline).

    So what does that mean? It means that while the Arctic is somewhat below the baseline, the Antarctic is so far above the baseline that putting them together into the global measurement indicates that overall sea ice is somewhat above the baseline (the baseline being what you would expect based on the past measurements during the baseline period).

    Perhaps it's when the Sun is in the sky and the Arctic temperature rises above the freezing point of water?
     
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