Taiwan, R.O.C. or not to R.O.C.

[Jorgon]

In case you know not what R.O.C. is, it's for Republic of China, assuming Taiwan is actually not independent from China, although it is a pretty nice country. Now to the meat of the issue. For years the Chinese have kicked around taking back Taiwan. If they did, would the US intervene? Would Russia? Would the UN just roll over on it's back like it probably will b/c the UN is worthless? Will the Taiwanese fight to the death, not only being massacred, but inflicting humongous casualties upon the Chinese Army as well? Were the Chinese not stopped by the UN, would that give them and other "evil" countries the prerogative to do as they please? For, as I believe, the only way to fight "evil" countries is by kicking their butts.

[Oaz]

I doubt the issue will come to any blows. I know plenty of Taiwanese people, and they proudly proclaim that their nation is a separate one; it's in the U.N. after all.

There will be too much pressure from the U.N. on China not to take decisive action against Taiwan. At the worst, trade embargos and the like, as well as the stuff like separating families. But I don't think a serious military conflict will occur; other nations will have intervened long before then.

[Atreides]

The Chinese can talk about it all they want but they'd piss off too many people by starting something like that.

[joacqin]

Taiwan is special, it *is* a part of China. The island is rightfully theirs. But as you say they cant do any overt military moves against as it wouldnt be popular by common opinion in the world. I think Taiwan will fall in the fold sooner or later, probably peacefully. Hopefully it will a joyful unification like west and east Germany after the mainland chinese have softened up. Even if it comes to blows I am doubtful if the world would intervene, they would probably condemn it but I am very doubtful if it would come to blows between the world and China. Too dangerous and they are basicly reclaiming a rebellious province.

[The Deviant Mage]

The United States supports Taiwan and always has. Taiwan actually is the Republic of China (China is the People's Republic of China); they claim to be the rightful government of all China. They descend from Chiang Kaishek, Mao's nemesis back in the day. The US supported both during WWII, when they tried to put their civil war aside to gang up on the Japanese invaders. The US obviously favored Chiang's Nationalists over Mao's Communists. When the dust cleared though, there was nothing the US could do to prevent the rise of Mao and the fall of Chiang: Mao's forces were smaller, but better disciplined and willing to die for their ideals. Chiang's forces suffered from poor leadership and corruption. It took a long time for the United States to stop pretending that Taiwan was China; Taiwan still hasn't stopped pretending.

As it stands now, I've heard it said that the strait between mainland China and Taiwan is the second most dangerous place in the world, behind Kashmir (I'm assuming this is 'dangerous' on a global political scale, else I cannot see it beating out parts of Jerusalem). China and the US routinely rattle their sabres at each other, conducting military exercises and testing missiles. It's a lot like the Cold War...both nations waiting for the other to blink.

The US supplies Taiwan just as we do Israel. Aside from Israel, I think Taiwan is the only other non-US nation to equip its armed forces with the M-16 assault rifle.

I definitely do not see the two nation merging any time soon. Taiwan does not at all share the doctrine of the mainland and is too stubborn to cave now. The People's Republic seems happy to call Taiwan an autonomous province, much like it does Xianjiang, and leave it at that.

I also don't see the mini-Cold War erupting into a hot war any time soon. China isn't going to go to war with the US over an island, at least not as things stand now. (And I certainly believe we would go to war if China tried to take Taiwan by force)

[Ragusa]

Just a brief thought: The point is not so much that taiwan is righfully china's. after WW-II the Kuomintang (sp?!) fled Mao's troops and withdrew to Taiwan - where they established a more or less democratic government. The taiwanese seemingly don't want to be ruled by Beijing. When people accept a right of other minorities of choosing their ruler, why should Taiwan be an exception?

[Jorgon]

The real reason China would want Taiwan is that Taiwan, by going democratic/capitalist blah blah blah, has succeeded where China has not, one reason is US support, the US obviously waste too much money on Israel and Taiwan, but Taiwan right now has several very nice universities as well as hospitals and such. Now about Xianjiang, I have not heard much on that? What is that about? Also, no one stopped China when they took over Tibet and kicked out the Dalai Lama.

[Shura]

IMO, Taiwan should fight to the death and sacrifice every man, woman or child to make China pay for their conquest.

Down with the communist scum!!

[Winterine]

A bit old, but...

Hear, hear! Taiwan would and should never be a part of China - their peoples are of fundamentally different mindsets.

[Aikanaro]

**** - you got me all excited when I saw Shura's post

[Cúchulainn]

China are not communist, they are just as capitalist as the US.

[Equester]

The US supplies Taiwan just as we do Israel. Aside from Israel, I think Taiwan is the only other non-US nation to equip its armed forces with the M-16 assault rifle.

the danish armed forces, uses a canadian copy of the m-16 (because the canadian copy can fire twice as many shots before breaking down).
which by the way means that both denmark and canada has access to the m-16.

as for the whole taiwan/china issue, i think it wont come to any blows, its to much of a risk with zero benifits for china. No doubt china could invade it, probably suffering a lot of casualties and at the same time risking a war with USA, which just isn't worth it.

[Ragusa]

Ha, Shura. He had fire in his belly ... and how cute, a post from the days when I still held the 'right of self determination' of the people to be a fabulous idea. And all the nice illusions I held about Taiwan.

Today I see it all a little different. It took nearly 50 years until eventually Taiwanese ruled Taiwan. Before then it has been heavily armed mainland chinese refugess who clung to the power once they seized it, and force fed it to the islanders. Instead of corrupt communist one-party rule the Taiwanese had corrupt anti-communist one-party rule, and for Mao they got Chiang Kai-shek, who was so averse to personality cult that he held some 130 or so positions in his country, iirc including being the head of the Taiwanese Boy Scouts. Sure, Taiwan was spared communist China's excessess. However, it's a very different China today. I don't see why they would be much worse off than Hongkong in case of re-unification.

US politicos use Taiwan as an excuse to agitate against a 'rising China'. Bogeymongering. China is first of all interested in its territorial integrity and internal stability. But then, something must replace communist Russia, and also ever since the commies kicked out the US missionaries out of China, opposing the Chicom pulls with the Christian Right constituency, not to mention all those who oppose communism out of principle or habit.
So all they need to do is to take some Taiwanese hardcore anti-commies, haul them to DC and let them sing the tune, in good english: 'We, the Taiwanese people need US protection against the grave peril of a Chinese invasion and Communist opression! Oh, and military aid!'. Seems Americans love to hear that tune. As the average Congressman and Senator knows **** about Taiwan, whoever Taiwanese they meet is representative. Alternatively, haul Congressmen and Senators to Taiwan to meet hardcore anti-commies there for more of the same, in a fancier setting and with lots of free chinese food, shrill music and prune liqueur.

After that treatment there is a good chance that they dismiss those Taiwanese calling for re-unification as commie stooges or fringe radicals. Yo! I want the Cold War back, too.

[ February 27, 2007, 13:17: Message edited by: Ragusa ]

[shadow lurker]

I don't know about China and Taiwan coming to blows, but I really can't see Taiwan happily being absorbed into China. I agree with Ragusa that Taiwan should be allowed to decide their own rulership. In doing my own little bit I recently signed a petition to let Taiwan join the WHO because China has been trying to stop them from joining.

[Ragusa]

My point, is that I increasingly feel the Taiwan issue is between Beijing and Taipeh, and that US involvement per se tends to distort the matter.

All this invasion talk is crap either, the Chinese navy isn't even capable of invading, so the threat is moot. It is interesting to see the literal void between the content and depth of reporting on the regular chinese maneuvers in the US and as opposed to the Asian press.

PS: Maybe the tread better belongs to AolS according to actual rules.

[Aldeth the Foppish Idiot]

First of all, the UN won't be able to do anything - China is a permanent member, it has veto power, and as such, any action against China's interest will be vetoed. So no, if it actually came to military conflict, the UN would not intervene. I find all this a little odd though - I mean, why would China *want* to invade Taiwan? To show that they can? I don't view the threat as moot though. China's army is huge, and would likely overwhelm the Taiwanese based on sheer numbers.

[Morgoroth]

Invading Taiwan would just damage China. Taiwan has big investments in China and those would be pulled out the moment China went for the offence. So quite frankly this stalemate will continue for a long long time since it's not profitable to either country to start a war. If Taiwan is to be united with China it would probably happen peacefully. If and how soon this would happen will depend a lot on the course China chooses for the future. Increased individual freedom and democratization would be required from China for it to ever be possible.

[Bahir the Red]

Does Taiwan have any natural resources at all? If they do, does China need them?

With China's current economical growth, I'm sure they'd rather invest in and develop non-military things, since outside investors probably won't put their money in non-profit things such a military.

[Ragusa]

China's big historical trauma was fragmentation, and an independent Taiwan is in mainland Chinese eyes just a stray province - after all for not much more than 60 years now. For a country and civilisation that's four milennia old that's nothing.

And it doesn't have anything to do with resources, or industry might. China is a powerhouse already - for what does it really need Taiwan? It's one of these instances where reliance on economic determinism leads to myopia. It's about history, culture foremost.

Is it really so diffcult to comprehend that the Chinese view the Taiwanese as kin, that ought to live together with them in one strong state? You had such a view in Germany vis a vis it's communist part, still have it between South-Korea and North-Korea.

To merely view China's claim on Taiwan as a 'sign of communist expansion' is just as silly.

[chevalier]

Commies are not a rightful government of China. The Kuomintang was not for that matter, either, and it's hard to debate the legitimacy of the imperial regime that lasted for centuries with foreign invasions, internal wars and dynastic changes. Therefore, it would be nonsense to claim that Taiwan rightfully belongs to commies. Should the Taiwanese decide to become an independent nation separate from the mainland Chinese, they would have every right to do so in my opinion.

[Tassadar]

There won't be any war, just peaceful resolution. Hong Kong's part of China now and is doing just fine.